15 months since his loss to GOAT contender Khabib Nurmagomedov, Conor McGregor returns this weekend to fight Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, in a fight that many fans see as somewhat underwhelming. Coming off of two straight loses, some see this fight as an easy way for McGregor to get back in the win column, an exercise in entertainment more than it is any real competition. But whilst McGregor is surely the favourite, it would be foolish to write Cowboy’s chances off. With a good game plan and a coherent strategy, Cerrone has the opportunity to surprise martial arts fans around the world, and further cement is status as one of MMA biggest cult heroes.
Conor McGregor
McGregor’s style is one of the most recognisable in the UFC roster, and as such, it is also one of the most predictable. Against Cerrone we can expect to see the Irishman hounding after an early knockout, looking to sleep Cerrone with that famous left-hand and the “touch of death” that defines it.
And whilst it is important for Cerrone to recognise the danger in McGregor’s left hand, it would be naïve to say that this is the only weapon in his arsenal – a statement Cerrone’s coach recently made.
Rather, it is imperative that Cerrone pay attention to the ways McGregor sets up this left hand. Even the way McGregor moves and positions himself in the ring is part of this strategy, that more often than not allows Conor to guide his opponents towards his famous and deadly left.
Particularly important in this fight will be McGregor’s often flamboyant repertoire of kicks. Normally, Conor’s teeps and side-kicks serve to prod and jab at his opponent’s body, distracting them from the left hand that threatens their consciousness. And against Cowboy this strategy could be particularly effective. Unfortunately, an old motocross accident cost Cerrone large portions of both his stomach and his intestines (the fact that Cowboy has continued to perform at the highest level of mixed martial arts after such a major surgery tells you more than I ever could about his character – but if you ever wondered why Cowboy is such a cult legend, look no further than this next-level kind of badassery), and as a result, he has since struggled against hard body shots.
Being a southpaw fighter, and Cerrone an orthodox, Conor will find kicks to the body especially open, and knowing Cowboy’s weakness, it would be no surprise to see McGregor use these kicks to wear away at Cerrone’s body either to finish he fight themselves, guide cowboy into the left hand, or catch him with a head kick as his hand drop to cover his vulnerable right side.
McGregor’s main weakness has never been a secret. With his style relying on his explosive speed and power, McGregor has faced serious adversity in any fight that has made it past the second round, when the relentless power of his left begins to fade (Vs Khabib, for example, McGregor was actually able to land some good left hands in the third round, but they lacked the power that so often characterises the Irishman’s strikes).
But, putting any potential ring-rust aside for a moment, there remains another quetionmark around McGregor in the build-up to this fight. Conor has always been a master of psychological warfare, but since the Mayweather fight he seems to of lost the witty composure that once defined his confident speaking style. Cresting in the build up to the Khabib fight, Conor has seemed more erratic, even crazed, in recent years, and the questionable tones in which he has spoken about his loss are less than promising.
Perhaps fame, money and whisky have gone to the head (as they so often do), or perhaps the Khabib loss will motivate McGregor, and we will see the best version of him ever to grace the Octagon. Either way, it remains to be seen whether the superstar still has the hunger and humility needed to perform and improve at the highest level.
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone
Unlike McGregor, Cerrone could approach this fight in any number of ways. He could, for instance, fully embrace the charismatic Wildman spirit that has made him so popular, and look to fight and beat McGregor at his own game. However, in my opinion, this would be a grave mistake.
Although his reputation has taken a hit since the Mayweather fight, McGregor remains one of the greatest knockout artists ever to compete in MMA, and to engage him on his own turf is to do little more than gift yourself a concussion.
If Cowboy is to win this fight, he will have to use all the martial arts skills available to him so as to nullify McGregor’s strengths and put him in uncomfortable, tiring positions.
Cerrone’s biggest strength is undoubtedly his Muay Thai, but against a striker as clinical as McGregor it is imperative that Cowboy employ a strategic gameplan in the stand-up. Few fighters can compete with McGregor at a boxing range, and although Cerrone has strong boxing ability, he has traditionally struggled against strong (particularly southpaw) boxers.
Cerrone does, however, use kicks exceptionally well, and is often able to hurt his opponent with elbows and especially knees inside the clinch. Bearing this in mind, it is important Cowboy employs as conservative a boxing style as possible, instead looking to use noncommittal jabs and feints to set up kicks, and opportunities to clinch with McGregor against the cage.
In theory, by staying out of the boxing range, (either by standing too far away – at a kicking range – or too close – in the clinch) landing a few leg kicks, and grinding away at McGregor’s body in the clinch, Cerrone could weather the story that has overwhelmed so many fighters before him, and wait for the Irish tide to recede.
In this vein, we might also consider Cerrone’s often underrated wrestling and BJJ abilities. Throughout his 50-fight career, Cowboy has shown not only an explosive, somewhat unorthodox, and well-timed double leg, but a strong ability to transition in a scramble and even threaten with submissions (despite his striking prowess, Cerrone actually has more submissions than he does knockouts).
Of course, McGregor has exceptional takedown defence, and has stayed on his feet against more accomplished wrestlers than Cowboy. But combine this with his Muay Thai foundation, which has a heavy focus on countering and catching kicks, and Cerrone could look to counter McGregor’s kicks either with his own strikes whilst the Irishman is off-balance, or with takedowns, that could give Cerrone a valuable opportunity to wear down McGregor on the ground.
Of course, this is all easier said than done. Cowboy has oftentimes been a slow starter (a death wish against McGregor), and he has a tendency to be unpredictable – he seems to have lost as many fights he was expected to win as he has lost those he was expected to lose. And in his last fight against Justin Gaethje, Cerrone looked noticeably weathered – although at 36 years old, and having fought 50 pro MMA fights, this is to be expected. Hopefully the lack of a weight cut will see the veteran coming in sharp and loose, but if he fights like he did against Gaethje, expect an short-lived contest.
Conclusion
Taking all this into consideration, this is undoubtedly McGregor’s fight to lose. But as safe a bet as a first or second round knockout might appear, Cerrone is by no means a can. If he fights smart, and sticks to a coherent strategy, he has the skill to cause a serious upset. And with the question-marks surrounding McGregor’s motivation, his mindset and his layoff, let alone the fact that the fight is taking place at 170lbs (presumably advantaging Cerrone), anything is possible.